Where Will We Find the Workers?

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Posted on Apr 20, 2005

A shortage of workers in BC's hospitality industry is coming in the next ten years, according to Dr. Roslyn Kunin, an economist with the Business Development Bank of Canada. Speaking at Vancouver's Food and Beverage Conference on April 4^th, Kunin painted a picture of demographic trends, and the implications for the job market over the next decade.

For Kunin, basic demographics are generally easy to predict. She explained that, for many years, the age of the human population has looked like a triangle, with the young generation at its base and the senior population at its peak. But by the mid-80s, this triangle resembled a Christmas tree: there was a decline in younger people at the base due to many women in the 60s deciding not to have children. Fast forward to the year 2000 and the triangle is now shaped like an egg: boomers have reached "full adulthood" (translation: middle-aged). Kunin predicts that by 2010, the triangle will be upside down due to the birth rate remaining steady at 1.5 children. (Immigration aside, 2.1 children are needed to maintain the population).

As for the implications for the hospitality industry, young people who have generally worked in the food industry won't be available by the time 2010 rolls around. Should we be worried?

When demand exceeds supply, an occupation gap occurs. This phenomenon occurred recently in BC due to a lack of supervisors and skilled workers in the construction industry, and the F&B sector is headed in the same direction. Managers in food service and accommodation, in particular, are going to be scarce, but Kunin says there is a solution: start looking now.

With the 2010 winter Olympics fast approaching, she reminds conference participants that "objects in the mirror are closer than they appear." She suggested that employers in the industry ask themselves who has the potential to move up in their workplace? “Start training now and look at everyone in the industry as a potential manager or supervisor," she said. Young people need to know that there will be plenty of positions available for those without a post-secondary education and for high school graduates, this spells opportunity. They need to know that there is less competition now and this career path "is the first step to a career in the fastest-growing industry in the world," said Kunin.

F&B industry employers should go to career fairs, talk to students at their schools, talk to their parents. Persuading them may be tough - parents want their kids to be doctors and lawyers, she acknowledged - but training has to be provided to build human capital.

"Why should I train them when they just go off somewhere else for more money?" one employer asked. Kunin replied, “It's a delicate and risky business, where you can lose short-term but gain long-term," she said. "But the end result of planning for the future can be an amazing discovery: A savvy employer can retain labour." After all, statistics suggest that the human resource may become the scarcest - right when the industry needs it most.

What can Employers Do?

Generally, the perception of the industry as a career opportunity needs improvement. Kunin suggests that employers must emphasize to newcomers that theirs isn't just a summer job, whereby the employee is just working until a "real" job comes along. Employers should emphasize the career path, and relay success stories in the industry (e.g. Umberto started out as a dishwasher). We need to emphasize that skills are required for this profession. A server does need skills, after all, they are "customer relations specialists."

Gallup conducted a large survey throughout North America to determine how to keep workers. This questionnaire was given to employees, and the number of "yes" answers it received measured the engagement level of the employee, which then reflects on the management. According to Gallup, employees don’t leave companies, they leave managers.

1. Do I know what is expected of me at work?

2. Do I have the materials and equipment to do the job well?

3. Do I have the opportunity to do what I do best at work?

And especially important for supervisors and managers:

4. In the last seven days, have I received praise or recognition for good work?

5. Does my supervisor care about me as a person?

6. Is there someone at work who encourages my development?

7. Does my opinion seem to count?

8. Does the mission of my company make me feel that my work is important?

9. Are my co-workers committed to doing quality work?

And most importantly,

10. Do I have a best friend at work?

11. In the last six months have I talked to someone about my progress?

12. In the last year, have I had the opportunity to learn and grow?

The bottom-line answer as to what employers can do to keep workers and attract new ones – be a better employer.